Wed, Dec 3 • Qubein Center • High Point, NC

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📍 Series & Setting

High Point continues its homestand now sitting at 7–1 with elite national metrics, especially on the offensive side. Many of HPU’s recent opponents have wanted to play in a similar mold: fast, furious, and with an emphasis on the three. This upcoming game, though, is a different kind of dogfight.

Southern Illinois comes in from the Missouri Valley at 4–4, but don’t let the record fool you. The Salukis were picked in the crowded MVC top tier and look more like a team still figuring out how all the new pieces fit together than a true middle-of-the-pack group.

There’s recent history, too. High Point went to Carbondale last season and won 94–81 in a track meet. Chase Johnston is the only Panther who played real minutes in that one, while SIU brings back rotation guys Damien Mayo Jr., Davion Sykes, and Drew Steffe who all saw the floor. Different rosters, different venue, same staffs, and two highly regarded mid-major programs.

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🔍 Overview: What Southern Illinois Wants to Be

This is Year 2 of the Scott Nagy era in Carbondale. Year 1 was a scramble: a brand-new staff, an almost entirely new roster, and an early ACL tear to their point guard. Year 2 looks more like classic Nagy.

Continuity:
Six returners, including starters Drew Steffe and Damien Mayo, plus key role guys Sykes, Rolyns Aligbe, and Jorge Moreno.

Portal Firepower:
Lead guards Quel’Ron House (Jacksonville State) and Caden Hawkins (JUCO national champ), scorer Isaiah Stafford(Valpo), Seton Hall transfer Prince Aligbe, and 7-footer Max Pikaar.

Early profile (through 8 games):

• AdjO: ~108
• AdjD: ~107
• Tempo: ~70 (moderately fast)
• eFG%: 52.1%
• TO%: 16.2%
• OR%: 32.6%
• FTR: 37.4 (they live at the line)
• 3P%: ~24–25% (very poor)
• 2P%: 58.0% (excellent)

Translation:
They want to pound the paint, draw fouls, and let their length/athleticism protect the rim while still playing with enough tempo to leverage their depth. But their three-point shooting and turnover issues have been major factors in their losses.

High Point’s profile is basically the mirror image:

• AdjO: ~115.7 (top-60)
• AdjD: ~106.5
• eFG%: 58.2%
• TO%: 12.8% (elite ball security)
• 3P%: 35.9%
• 2P%: 61.1%
• 3PA/FGA: ~40%
• Def TO%: 23.0%
• Def OR% / FTR allowed: shaky

So you’re looking at a hyper-efficient, spacing-heavy offense (HPU) vs. a physical, rim-attacking, foul-drawing MVC group (SIU).

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⚙️ Team Identity: Saluki Ball
A Saluki is an ancient Egyptian sighthound, beloved by pharaohs, often mummified and buried with their owners. So with that in mind…

1️⃣ Lock & Key

The ancient Egyptians invented the lock and key—fitting, since that’s where the Salukis do most of their work.

Southern:

• Takes a below-average rate of 3s and makes under 25%.
• Shoots 58% on 2s and lives at the rim (drives, post-ups, duck-ins).
• Draws a ton of fouls and gets to the line nearly 15 times per game.

Nagy’s best SDSU/Wright State teams were elite shooting outfits, but this group is built around straight-line drives and post touches instead of spacing.

2️⃣ Mummy Wrap Defense

Defensively, they’re closer to the classic Nagy template:

• Solid eFG% defense; they contest and wall off the rim.
• Excellent block rate—length everywhere (Sykes, both Aligbes, Moreno, Pikaar).
• Low forced turnover rate, but they make you score over size, not through clean paint touches.

They’d prefer this game in the high 60s/low 70s, physical, foul-heavy, and decided in the lane.

3️⃣ Walk/Run Like an Egyptian

Given the mascot, you’d expect a track meet. In reality:

• They play just fast enough to use their depth without being reckless.
• At their best when House/Hawkins push off a miss and create early rim pressure or kick-outs.

If this becomes a true sprint, it favors High Point’s depth and spacing. But SIU will happily run off your mistakes.

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🧩 Key Salukis to Know

⭐ #2 Quel’Ron House (6’0 So, G)
Lead guard and tone-setter.
Efficient at 2s, quick downhill driver, solid playmaker, primary POA defender.
HPU Key: Wall off transition; force him into floaters and pull-ups instead of layups/lobs.

⭐ #9 Isaiah Stafford (6’2 R-Sr, G)
The bucket-getter.
Former 17 ppg scorer at Valpo; high-usage, tough-shot maker.
HPU Key: Make him a volume guy, not an efficient one. Run him off rhythm and into traffic.

⭐ #21 Drew Steffe (6’5 So, G/F)
Resident sniper and connector.
One of their best shooters; already has a 20+ outing this season.
HPU Key: No clean corner threes—he punishes over-help.

⭐ #4 Davion Sykes (6’6 Sr, F) & #8 Prince Aligbe (6’7 Sr, F)
Switch-everything bully-ball duo.
Sykes: ultra-versatile, high 2P%, excellent defender.
Prince: mismatch 4 who can post or attack closeouts.
HPU Key: Fletcher + Anderson must win the physicality battle without fouling.

🧱 The Bigs: Rolyns Aligbe, Jorge Moreno, Max Pikaar

• Rolyns: Wide, physical rebounder; raw finisher.
• Moreno: 6’11, 270; ultra-efficient post finisher, but vulnerable in space.
• Pikaar: 7-footer who wants to play on the perimeter; mobile stretch big.

HPU Key: Gang rebounding, limit second chance points and SIU will have a very difficult time keeping up 

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📊 Tempo-Free Snapshot

Southern Illinois (4–4):
Good at the rim, bad from three, draws fouls, solid rim protection, average turnovers forced.

High Point (7–1):
Excellent shooting, elite ball security, efficient scoring everywhere, turnover-happy defense, but shaky defensive rebounding and foul rate.

Edges:

• HPU ball security → big edge Panthers
• HPU shooting volume/accuracy → math edge Panthers
• SIU rim pressure/FT rate → upset path

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🧠 Coaching Notes: Nagy vs. Clayman

Scott Nagy’s résumé is real: nearly 600 wins, multiple NCAA trips, and a long history of elite offensive efficiency. This SIU team isn’t there yet—especially from deep—but Nagy teams usually surge late once guard roles settle.

He’s big on continuity and said this past summer was the first time both staff and players fully understood his system. That’s why SIU is more dangerous than their record.

Clayman has High Point playing exactly how analytics dream: pace, spacing, and relentless pressure, anchored by Fletcher, Martin, and Martinez.

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🏀 Matchup Outlook vs HPU

1️⃣ Turnover Tug-of-War
HPU is one of the lowest-turnover teams in the nation; SIU isn’t built to force giveaways. If High Point stays in the 8–10 turnover range, SIU loses a primary scoring engine.

2️⃣ Math Problem: 3s vs. 2s
Ancient Egyptians may have invented algebra, but the math here is simple:
HPU takes and makes a lot of threes.
SIU takes and makes very few.
If HPU hits ~35–36% on high volume, SIU has to:

• suddenly become a good shooting team, or
• live at the line and the offensive glass.

3️⃣ Foul Trouble & Free Throws
SIU’s FT rate is excellent; HPU’s defense can be whistle-prone. If SIU lives at the stripe and Fletcher/Aquino sit early, you’re in a grinder.

4️⃣ Rebounding: Who Owns the Paint?
HPU must keep the Salukis to one shot. Limit the tip-outs and put-backs, and SIU’s offense becomes very mortal.

5️⃣ Dogs vs. Cats
Salukis are literally one of the fastest dog breeds on earth but HPU is actually the team that would prefer to turn this into a track meet. The Salukis will want to turn this into a dog fight but expect the Panthers to play with their typical poise and grace behind Martin and Martinez. 

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🗝️ Keys for HPU

• Wall off the paint vs House/Stafford/Prince
• Contest vertically; avoid bailing them out at the line
• Gang rebound (guards included)
• Hunt bigs in space via ball screens
• Win the 3-point math
• Stay poised and keep turnovers low

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🔮 Toothsayer’s Take

Southern Illinois is not last year’s hastily assembled group. They have real size, multiple capable guards, and a coach who has spent decades winning grinder-type games. But the matchup leans purple in too many crucial areas:

• High Point’s ball security, shooting, and depth
• SIU’s three-point woes and reliance on whistle + glass
• Qubein Center’s home-court energy

If the Panthers keep the Saluki offense out of the paint and avoid foul trouble, the efficiency gap should show.

Cats were sacred in Ancient Egypt for their ability to protect homes and granaries from rodents and snakes. Bastet, the cat goddess of protection, would approve: the Panthers protect their house and stay perfect at home.

Prediction:
High Point 91, Southern Illinois 74