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  • 🐾 Panther’s Toothsayer: Southern Illinois Salukis

    Wed, Dec 3 • Qubein Center • High Point, NC

    📍 Series & Setting

    High Point continues its homestand now sitting at 7–1 with elite national metrics, especially on the offensive side. Many of HPU’s recent opponents have wanted to play in a similar mold: fast, furious, and with an emphasis on the three. This upcoming game, though, is a different kind of dogfight.

    Southern Illinois comes in from the Missouri Valley at 4–4, but don’t let the record fool you. The Salukis were picked in the crowded MVC top tier and look more like a team still figuring out how all the new pieces fit together than a true middle-of-the-pack group.

    There’s recent history, too. High Point went to Carbondale last season and won 94–81 in a track meet. Chase Johnston is the only Panther who played real minutes in that one, while SIU brings back rotation guys Damien Mayo Jr., Davion Sykes, and Drew Steffe who all saw the floor. Different rosters, different venue, same staffs, and two highly regarded mid-major programs.

    🔍 Overview: What Southern Illinois Wants to Be

    This is Year 2 of the Scott Nagy era in Carbondale. Year 1 was a scramble: a brand-new staff, an almost entirely new roster, and an early ACL tear to their point guard. Year 2 looks more like classic Nagy.

    Continuity:
    Six returners, including starters Drew Steffe and Damien Mayo, plus key role guys Sykes, Rolyns Aligbe, and Jorge Moreno.

    Portal Firepower:
    Lead guards Quel’Ron House (Jacksonville State) and Caden Hawkins (JUCO national champ), scorer Isaiah Stafford(Valpo), Seton Hall transfer Prince Aligbe, and 7-footer Max Pikaar.

    Early profile (through 8 games):

    • AdjO: ~108
    • AdjD: ~107
    • Tempo: ~70 (moderately fast)
    • eFG%: 52.1%
    • TO%: 16.2%
    • OR%: 32.6%
    • FTR: 37.4 (they live at the line)
    • 3P%: ~24–25% (very poor)
    • 2P%: 58.0% (excellent)

    Translation:
    They want to pound the paint, draw fouls, and let their length/athleticism protect the rim while still playing with enough tempo to leverage their depth. But their three-point shooting and turnover issues have been major factors in their losses.

    High Point’s profile is basically the mirror image:

    • AdjO: ~115.7 (top-60)
    • AdjD: ~106.5
    • eFG%: 58.2%
    • TO%: 12.8% (elite ball security)
    • 3P%: 35.9%
    • 2P%: 61.1%
    • 3PA/FGA: ~40%
    • Def TO%: 23.0%
    • Def OR% / FTR allowed: shaky

    So you’re looking at a hyper-efficient, spacing-heavy offense (HPU) vs. a physical, rim-attacking, foul-drawing MVC group (SIU).

    ⚙️ Team Identity: Saluki Ball
    A Saluki is an ancient Egyptian sighthound, beloved by pharaohs, often mummified and buried with their owners. So with that in mind…

    1️⃣ Lock & Key

    The ancient Egyptians invented the lock and key—fitting, since that’s where the Salukis do most of their work.

    Southern:

    • Takes a below-average rate of 3s and makes under 25%.
    • Shoots 58% on 2s and lives at the rim (drives, post-ups, duck-ins).
    • Draws a ton of fouls and gets to the line nearly 15 times per game.

    Nagy’s best SDSU/Wright State teams were elite shooting outfits, but this group is built around straight-line drives and post touches instead of spacing.

    2️⃣ Mummy Wrap Defense

    Defensively, they’re closer to the classic Nagy template:

    • Solid eFG% defense; they contest and wall off the rim.
    • Excellent block rate—length everywhere (Sykes, both Aligbes, Moreno, Pikaar).
    • Low forced turnover rate, but they make you score over size, not through clean paint touches.

    They’d prefer this game in the high 60s/low 70s, physical, foul-heavy, and decided in the lane.

    3️⃣ Walk/Run Like an Egyptian

    Given the mascot, you’d expect a track meet. In reality:

    • They play just fast enough to use their depth without being reckless.
    • At their best when House/Hawkins push off a miss and create early rim pressure or kick-outs.

    If this becomes a true sprint, it favors High Point’s depth and spacing. But SIU will happily run off your mistakes.

    🧩 Key Salukis to Know

    ⭐ #2 Quel’Ron House (6’0 So, G)
    Lead guard and tone-setter.
    Efficient at 2s, quick downhill driver, solid playmaker, primary POA defender.
    HPU Key: Wall off transition; force him into floaters and pull-ups instead of layups/lobs.

    ⭐ #9 Isaiah Stafford (6’2 R-Sr, G)
    The bucket-getter.
    Former 17 ppg scorer at Valpo; high-usage, tough-shot maker.
    HPU Key: Make him a volume guy, not an efficient one. Run him off rhythm and into traffic.

    ⭐ #21 Drew Steffe (6’5 So, G/F)
    Resident sniper and connector.
    One of their best shooters; already has a 20+ outing this season.
    HPU Key: No clean corner threes—he punishes over-help.

    ⭐ #4 Davion Sykes (6’6 Sr, F) & #8 Prince Aligbe (6’7 Sr, F)
    Switch-everything bully-ball duo.
    Sykes: ultra-versatile, high 2P%, excellent defender.
    Prince: mismatch 4 who can post or attack closeouts.
    HPU Key: Fletcher + Anderson must win the physicality battle without fouling.

    🧱 The Bigs: Rolyns Aligbe, Jorge Moreno, Max Pikaar

    • Rolyns: Wide, physical rebounder; raw finisher.
    • Moreno: 6’11, 270; ultra-efficient post finisher, but vulnerable in space.
    • Pikaar: 7-footer who wants to play on the perimeter; mobile stretch big.

    HPU Key: Gang rebounding, limit second chance points and SIU will have a very difficult time keeping up 

    📊 Tempo-Free Snapshot

    Southern Illinois (4–4):
    Good at the rim, bad from three, draws fouls, solid rim protection, average turnovers forced.

    High Point (7–1):
    Excellent shooting, elite ball security, efficient scoring everywhere, turnover-happy defense, but shaky defensive rebounding and foul rate.

    Edges:

    • HPU ball security → big edge Panthers
    • HPU shooting volume/accuracy → math edge Panthers
    • SIU rim pressure/FT rate → upset path

    🧠 Coaching Notes: Nagy vs. Clayman

    Scott Nagy’s résumé is real: nearly 600 wins, multiple NCAA trips, and a long history of elite offensive efficiency. This SIU team isn’t there yet—especially from deep—but Nagy teams usually surge late once guard roles settle.

    He’s big on continuity and said this past summer was the first time both staff and players fully understood his system. That’s why SIU is more dangerous than their record.

    Clayman has High Point playing exactly how analytics dream: pace, spacing, and relentless pressure, anchored by Fletcher, Martin, and Martinez.

    🏀 Matchup Outlook vs HPU

    1️⃣ Turnover Tug-of-War
    HPU is one of the lowest-turnover teams in the nation; SIU isn’t built to force giveaways. If High Point stays in the 8–10 turnover range, SIU loses a primary scoring engine.

    2️⃣ Math Problem: 3s vs. 2s
    Ancient Egyptians may have invented algebra, but the math here is simple:
    HPU takes and makes a lot of threes.
    SIU takes and makes very few.
    If HPU hits ~35–36% on high volume, SIU has to:

    • suddenly become a good shooting team, or
    • live at the line and the offensive glass.

    3️⃣ Foul Trouble & Free Throws
    SIU’s FT rate is excellent; HPU’s defense can be whistle-prone. If SIU lives at the stripe and Fletcher/Aquino sit early, you’re in a grinder.

    4️⃣ Rebounding: Who Owns the Paint?
    HPU must keep the Salukis to one shot. Limit the tip-outs and put-backs, and SIU’s offense becomes very mortal.

    5️⃣ Dogs vs. Cats
    Salukis are literally one of the fastest dog breeds on earth but HPU is actually the team that would prefer to turn this into a track meet. The Salukis will want to turn this into a dog fight but expect the Panthers to play with their typical poise and grace behind Martin and Martinez. 

    🗝️ Keys for HPU

    • Wall off the paint vs House/Stafford/Prince
    • Contest vertically; avoid bailing them out at the line
    • Gang rebound (guards included)
    • Hunt bigs in space via ball screens
    • Win the 3-point math
    • Stay poised and keep turnovers low

    🔮 Toothsayer’s Take

    Southern Illinois is not last year’s hastily assembled group. They have real size, multiple capable guards, and a coach who has spent decades winning grinder-type games. But the matchup leans purple in too many crucial areas:

    • High Point’s ball security, shooting, and depth
    • SIU’s three-point woes and reliance on whistle + glass
    • Qubein Center’s home-court energy

    If the Panthers keep the Saluki offense out of the paint and avoid foul trouble, the efficiency gap should show.

    Cats were sacred in Ancient Egypt for their ability to protect homes and granaries from rodents and snakes. Bastet, the cat goddess of protection, would approve: the Panthers protect their house and stay perfect at home.

    Prediction:
    High Point 91, Southern Illinois 74

  • 🐾 Panther’s Toothsayer: Western Carolina Catamounts

    Sat, Nov 29 • Qubein Center • High Point, NC

    📍 Series & Setting
    High Point returns home at 6–1, fresh off a Boardwalk Battle championship where the Panthers were tested by a couple quality mid-majors but took home the title by playing some of their cleanest, most balanced basketball of the season. Awaiting them is an opponent with a familiar face on the sideline but rocking a completely different colored tie: Tim Craft’s Western Carolina Catamounts (3–3).

    After taking a year off, High Point squares off again against one of their most common foes, but this is the first meeting between the programs with Craft at the helm in Cullowhee. This will be the 61st meeting between the two purple big-cat North Carolina schools. The Panthers hold a 40–20 record over the Catamounts dating all the way back to 1946.

    There is also plenty of shared history with Coach Tim Craft. Craft spent 11 seasons at Gardner-Webb, building the Runnin’ Bulldogs into a Big South force. Under Craft, Gardner-Webb made the NCAA Tournament for the first time in program history and also developed a reputation for upsetting high-major programs. In his 11 seasons, Craft recorded six wins over Power Five teams. While he went just 10–12 against High Point, his teams consistently elevated their play in games where they were roster underdogs and Saturday will be another of those situations, with HPU likely to be heavily favored at home.

    However, this WCU team isn’t last season’s 8–22 rebuild project. The Catamounts entered 2025–26 returning the second-most production in the SoCon, and they have already shown real improvement, particularly behind preseason All-SoCon forward Marcus Kell and a revamped, more experienced backcourt.

    Still, they arrive in High Point with plenty of flaws the Panthers can exploit.

    🔍 Overview: What Western Carolina Wants to Be
    Western Carolina is very much a “Year 2 jump” project.

    Last year
    – 8–22 (4–14 SoCon)
    – One of the youngest and least experienced teams in all of Division I
    – Brutal offense: sub-100 AdjO, sub-30% from three

    This year
    – Most of that youth is back
    – Added multiple veteran guards and bigs
    – Still clunky, but notably more dangerous

    Early profile (through six games)

    • AdjO: ~101
    • AdjD: ~111
    • Tempo: ~72
    • eFG%: 45.3% (still poor)
    • TO%: 21.7% (lots of giveaways)
    • OR%: 30.0% (crash the glass hard)
    • 3P: 27.3%
    • 2P: 48.4%
    • FT: 67.5%

    Translation: they play hard, rebound aggressively, defend in stretches, but shooting and turnovers can absolutely sink them.

    Meanwhile, High Point is tracking like a true mid-major problem:

    • AdjO: 115.3 (top-60)
    • AdjD: 106.1
    • eFG%: 56.7%
    • 2P: 60.7%
    • 3P: 33.8%
    • OR%: 31.2%
    • TO%: 11.8%
    • Deep, flexible rotation
    • Fletcher/Martin/Martinez all playing like all-league contributors

    This is elite, modern, efficient offense versus a still-growing defense-first rebuild.

    ⚙️ Team Identity: Creators, Crashers, and Craftball

    🎯 Creators
    WCU leans heavily on:

    • #0 Cord Stansberry (G, 11.2 PPG) — streaky but dangerous shooter; 91% FT
    • #33 Marcus Kell (F, 11.7 PPG last season) — preseason All-SoCon; versatile stretch forward
    • #3 Julien Soumaoro (G) — veteran Craft disciple; stabilizer and secondary creator

    They determine WCU’s scoring ceiling.

    🧱 Crashers
    Western Carolina’s frontcourt relentlessly attacks the glass:

    • Abdulai Fanta Kabba — elite shot-block timing, physical rebounder
    • Vernon Collins — high motor, offensive board machine
    • Chase McKey — efficient finisher and connective big

    They form one of the best offensive-rebounding units HPU has faced this month. If there has been any consistent weakness for High Point this season it’s been the inability to complete stops and keeping opposing offenses to one-and-dones. This will be the Panthers’ biggest challenge on Saturday. 

    🧩 Craftball Defense
    Craft’s calling cards:

    • Physicality
    • Clean rotations
    • Walling off the paint
    • Strong interior contests

    Expect WCU to shrink the floor, protect the rim, and force HPU to make jumpers, something the roster can obviously do but at times have been streaky so far this year. 

    🧩 Key Catamounts to Know

    ⭐ #33 Marcus Kell — Preseason All-SoCon

    • 11.7 PPG, 5.5 RPG last year
    • 37.9% from three (44 makes)
    • Team leader in blocks, elite stretch-4 profile
    • Dangerous pick-and-pop threat
    • Defensive target for HPU’s physicality

    ⭐ #0 Cord Stansberry — Streaky Sniper

    • 11.2 PPG
    • 52 threes last year
    • 91.3% FT
    • Career-high six threes vs VMI
    • If he’s hot, WCU hangs around. If not, they struggle.

    ⭐ #3 Julien Soumaoro — Craft’s Guy

    • Played three years under Craft at Gardner-Webb
    • Strong shooter, decision-maker, competitor
    • Huge upgrade over last year’s backcourt turnover issues

    Others

    • #22 Tidjiane Dioumassi (6’4 Gr G — Southern): elite passer, POA defender, non-shooter
    • #7 Abdulai Fanta Kabba (7’0 So C): rim protector, rebounder, lob threat
    • #33 Vernon Collins & #12 Samuel Dada: size + energy
    • #2 CJ Hyland, #20 Fischer Brown, #8 Tahlan Pettway: youth, shooting attempts, defensive effort

    📈 Tempo-Free Snapshot

    Western Carolina (3–3)

    • AdjO: ~106
    • AdjD: ~110
    • eFG%: 48.4%
    • 3P%: 27.6%
    • Turnovers: High
    • Offensive Rebounding: Strong
    • FT Shooting: A strength

    High Point (6–1)

    • AdjO: 115+
    • AdjD: ~106
    • eFG%: 56.7%
    • 2P%: 60.7%
    • Tempo: Top 80
    • Turnover Rate: Top 25
    • Depth: Legit advantage

    The Panthers are operating at a higher tier and the analytics reflect it.

    🧠 Coaching Notes: Tim Craft

    • Record vs HPU: 10–12
    • Thrives in structure, scouting, and half-court execution
    • Historically struggles vs pace, turnovers, and high-efficiency offenses 
    • This WCU roster fits his defensive vision but has familiar offensive limitations

    HPU’s pace, depth, and rim pressure are exactly the profile that traditionally gives Craft problems.

    🏀 Matchup Outlook vs HPU

    ⏩ Pace Advantage: High Point
    WCU wants a mid-possession, slower game.
    HPU wants to run, rotate, and overwhelm.
    Expect HPU to dictate the tempo early.

    🧱 Interior Battle
    WCU rebounds well, but the Panthers:

    • Have two elite rim finishers (Fletcher & Anderson)
    • Can rotate bigs to stay fresh
    • Stretch WCU’s centers into space

    WCU’s offensive rebounding may keep them in range, but won’t swing the game unless HPU completely loses discipline.

    🎯 HPU’s Shooting vs WCU’s Coverage
    WCU protects the paint, but gives up open threes — a massive risk against a team with 7–8 shooters who can get hot.

    🧨 The Breaking Point
    WCU lacks the shot creation to survive extended droughts.
    HPU’s depth routinely breaks opponents in the 2nd half.

    🗝️ Keys for HPU

    • Control Kell on the perimeter
    • Rebound collectively
    • Pressure WCU’s guards
    • Run on makes and misses
    • Use lineup flexibility to pull WCU’s bigs away from the rim

    🔮 Toothsayer’s Take
    Western Carolina has improved pieces, a real star in Kell, and a coach who knows High Point as well as anyone outside the Big South. But the matchup leans heavily toward HPU in nearly every key area:

    • Pace
    • Depth
    • Shot creation
    • Rim finishing
    • Turnovers caused and avoided
    • Overall athleticism

    WCU’s best hope is to slow the game down, rebound like madmen, and hope Kell and Stansberry go nuclear from deep. But at home, with HPU’s depth and efficiency trending upward, the Panthers should be too much.

    Prediction:
    High Point 92, Western Carolina 78

  • 🐾 Panther’s Toothsayer: Incarnate Word Cardinals

    Sat, Nov 22 • Boardwalk Battle — Daytona Beach, FL

    📍 Series & Setting

    Another first-time matchup for High Point, this time against Incarnate Word (3–2) out of the Southland — and with a championship on the line. The Panthers enter the Boardwalk Battle finale at 5–1 with a chance to stabilize their non-conference momentum after a scrappy but successful win over UIC. They can also add to the trophy case with their first MTE bracket championship since the SoCal Challenge in 2022.

    For UIW, this is a major early-season test and a potential turning point. The Cardinals picked up their first D1 victory of the season earlier in Daytona with a tight win over Southern Indiana. Their schedule has been feast-or-famine: they’ve taken care of business against lower-division opponents, been blown out by Colorado State, and then nearly shocked Indiana in Bloomington — falling 69–61 in a game they legitimately controlled for long stretches.

    After facing either top-50 teams or sub-300 opponents, UIW now meets High Point — a team squarely in the “Goldilocks zone.” Sitting in the mid-80s on KenPom and coming off back-to-back conference titles, HPU is exactly the type of opponent third-year head coach Shane Heirman wants his Cardinals measured against.

    And speaking of Heirman… The Incarnate Word head coach previously worked directly under Alan Huss at La Lumiere, eventually replacing him and winning a national championship in 2017. That means the Boardwalk Battle final isn’t just a showdown between two rising mid-majors — it’s a grudge match between two Huss Bus disciples.

    🔍 Overview

    Incarnate Word is built around two high-usage perimeter creators supported by rugged, high-motor role players. They play at a top-60 tempo and lean heavily into ball screens, dribble attacks, and the shot creation of:

    • #2 Tahj Staveskie (Sr., 6’1″) — massive usage (26.8%), elite ORtg (127.0), efficient inside & out
    • #5 Davion Bailey (Gr., 6’4″) — Top-5 nationally in 3PA and 3PM last season; he has the green light as soon as he enters the gym

    Despite having two studs, UIW’s efficiency swings wide. Their losses typically come when turnovers spike (they rank around 220th in ball security) and when spacing evaporates. Their defense currently rates better than their offense (~115 vs. mid-160s), but that could flip — Heirman’s teams historically score at a high level while protecting absolutely nothing.

    High Point, meanwhile, has found multiple ways to win despite shooting volatility. They are:

    • Top-70 nationally in tempo
    • Top-65 in eFG%
    • Elite finishing inside the arc (59.7% from 2)
    • Still searching for consistent deep shooting (34.6% from 3)

    The Panthers have yet to fully click — which makes their 5–1 start even more encouraging.

    ⚙️ Team Identity: UIW — Creators, Crashers & Chaos

    🎯 Creators

    Staveskie and Bailey combine for nearly half of UIW’s total shot attempts. Everything revolves around their ball-screens, pull-ups, and rim pressure.

    🧱 Crashers

    UIW crashes the offensive glass hard (23.4% OR%). Marcus Glover, Jayden Williams, and Jordan Pyke give them size, length, and activity.

    🔥 Chaos

    They mix coverages (drop, hedge, and some zone) and force turnovers at a solid rate (18.5%).
    They also foul — constantly. Their defensive FTR allowed ranks 309th nationally.

    🧩 Key Cardinals

    #2 Tahj Staveskie (G, Sr., 6’1″)

    UIW’s offensive engine — huge usage, efficient scoring, and strong paint touches.

    • 26.8% usage
    • 59.8% TS
    • Best guard at getting two feet in the paint

    #5 Davion Bailey (G, Gr., 6’4″) — Nationally Elite Volume Shooter

    Last season Bailey ranked Top 5 nationally in both 3-point attempts and 3-point makes. He’s again one of the highest-volume snipers in Division I.

    • Shoots off the catch, movement, and pull-ups
    • Must be tracked in transition
    • Gravity is real even when the percentage dips

    #7 Jordan Pyke (F, Jr., 6’7″)

    • Physical interior defender
    • 7.6% block rate
    • Active rebounder and finisher

    #10 Harold Woods (F, Sr., 6’5″)

    • Glue guy, cutter, and paint finisher
    • Reliable defensive presence

    #8 Marcus Glover / #4 Jayden Williams

    • High-motor bigs
    • Generate second-chance points
    • Limited floor-spacing or shot creation

    📊 Tempo-Free Snapshot (Season to Date)

    High Point Panthers (5–1)

    AdjO: 116.5
    AdjD: 106.0
    eFG%: 56.5%
    3P%: 34.6%
    2P%: 59.7%
    FT%: 74.0%
    Tempo: 72.4 (Top 70)

    Strengths

    • Balanced scoring (Martin, Fletcher, Martinez, Anderson)
    • Elite rim finishing
    • Turnover-resistant offense (11.7% TO%)
    • Flexible, effective lineups
    • Dangerous in transition

    Questions

    • Streaky perimeter shooting (44–127 from three)
    • Rebounding consistency
    • Late-clock execution vs. switching schemes

    Incarnate Word Cardinals (3–2)

    AdjO: 109.5
    AdjD: 111.9
    eFG%: 48.9%
    3P%: 31.6%
    2P%: 49.6%
    FT%: 64.4%
    Tempo: 69.2 (Top 150)

    Strengths

    • Two legitimate 15–17 PPG creators
    • Hard drivers and physical finishers
    • Interior deterrence from Pyke/Glover
    • Bench length and size

    Weaknesses

    • Among the worst FT-shooting teams nationally
    • Turnovers snowball quickly
    • Extremely foul-prone
    • Multiple bottom-30 defensive rebounding performances

    🧠 Coaching Notes: Shane Heirman (UIW)

    • Former Alan Huss protégé (La Lumiere)
    • Won a national HS championship
    • Year 2 at UIW, coming off a historic 19–17 (CBI semifinal)
    • Offense: modern, spacing-based, creator-dependent
    • Defense: aggressive, physical, risky

    Expect:

    • Heavy Staveskie/Bailey ball screens
    • Driving lanes for secondary lineups
    • Occasional 1–3–1 or high-wall man
    • Attempts to pull HPU’s bigs into space

    🏀 Matchup Outlook vs. High Point

    ⏩ Pace Battle

    Both teams want to run — HPU due to depth, UIW to mask half-court inconsistency.
    Over time, HPU’s decision-making should dictate tempo.

    🧱 HPU Interior Advantage

    Fletcher, Anderson, and Aquino provide superior rim protection, size, and offensive versatility.

    🎯 HPU Perimeter vs. UIW Defense

    UIW fouls on drives and hand-checks excessively.
    HPU should live at the line — 12+ FTAs for Fletcher/Martin/Martinez is realistic.

    🪫 UIW Offensive Reliance

    Limit Staveskie + Bailey to contested pull-ups, and UIW becomes far easier to guard.

    🏎️ Daytona Nudge

    HPU functions like a team with multiple engines; UIW is essentially a two-cylinder machine.
    In a race that extends into the late laps, depth wins in Daytona.

    🗝️ Keys for HPU

    • Control Staveskie’s rhythm — mix coverages, no clean pull-ups
    • Attack the paint early — UIW fouls constantly; get into the bonus by the under-12
    • Punish turnovers with pace — live-ball TOs → layups + rhythm threes
    • Dominate the glass — UIW’s greatest strength vs HPU’s biggest weakness
    • Let the depth cook — the 24–40 minute stretch favors HPU in every game so far

    🔮 Toothsayer’s Take

    UIW has two true scorers and enough length to make this competitive in stretches, but their reliance on tough shot-making, turnover issues, and foul tendencies are tough matchups against High Point’s tempo, depth, and physicality. Their offensive-rebounding strength directly targets HPU’s biggest weakness, and that alone could keep the Cardinals within striking distance.

    Still, High Point’s depth, versatility, and ability to pressure ball-handlers should carry the day. If the Panthers convert at the free-throw line and survive on the glass, they separate late.

    Prediction:

    High Point 89, Incarnate Word 83
    The Panthers take control in the second half and ride steady momentum to a Boardwalk Battle title.
    Cam Fletcher — Tournament MVP.

  • 🐾 🏁 Panther’s Toothsayer: UIC Flames

    Thu, Nov 20 • Boardwalk Battle (Daytona Beach, FL) • 2:30 PM

    📍🏝️ Series & Setting

    High Point heads to Daytona for a neutral-site matchup against UIC — the first meeting between the programs. The backdrop feels fitting: two teams that both prefer to push pace meeting in the shadow of Daytona’s speedway, where quick decisions and control of tempo separate contenders from pretenders.

    HPU comes in off a strong response performance against Canisius, showing better defensive structure, more discipline, and real contributions across the roster. The shooting also started to rev up against the Griffins, especially Chase Johnston who hit five shots from beyond the arc. The Panthers have generated clean looks but haven’t consistently cashed them in all year — they’ll need to be sharp in this mid day MTE meeting.

    UIC arrives at 3–1 with wins over Detroit Mercy, St. Francis (IL), and Chicago State, and a tight loss at Oregon State. The Flames, like so many mid majors,  rebuilt their roster with 10 new players and play an aggressive, pace-friendly style under second-year head coach Rob Ehsan.

    This one has the feel of a shootout and whoever comes out on top could be truly off to the races.

    🔍 Overview

    UIC lost four starters and returned just 15% of last season’s minutes. But Ehsan rebuilt the roster based on experience, length, and versatility. They want to pressure the ball, force mistakes, and turn long rebounds into transition chances. Sound familiar? 

    Offensively they rely on:

    • Spacing and early-clock threes
    • Pick-and-roll creation
    • Long wings attacking offensive glass
    • Henderson’s speed in the open floor

    Defensively it’s a mix of physical man-to-man with pressure principles — traps, aggressive closeouts, and keeping opponents off their spots.

    UIC is talented, unpredictable, but still developing chemistry.

    ⚙️ Team Identity: Pressure, Pace & Prolonged

    Pressure: UIC wants to disrupt possessions early, push ball-handlers to the sideline, and force rushed decisions.
    Pace: They score 82.3 PPG and try to turn games into track meets.
    Prolonged: Multiple 6’6–6’8 wings rotate across the lineup, giving them versatility and switching options.
    Threes: High-volume from deep — 66th nationally in attempts.
    Free Throws: They shoot 80% at the line, making fouls costly.

    🧩 Key Flames

    Ahmad Henderson II (5’10 PG — 17.0 PPG)
    Undersized but explosive; elite free throw shooter (95%) and their top perimeter threat.

    Andy Johnson (6’6 Fr. — 15.0 PPG)
    A breakout freshman with size and shooting ability. Smooth scorer.

    Sam Silverstein (6’6 G/F)
    Glue guy — rebounds, defends multiple spots, impacts winning without needing shots.

    Mekhi Lowery (6’7 G/F)
    Athletic, active rebounder and defender; thrives as a utility piece.

    Ante Beljan (6’10 F)
    Skilled Euro-style big: touch, passing, pick-and-pop potential.

    Depth pieces to track: Momoh, Walker, Hammons, Crawford.

    📊 Tempo-Free Snapshot

    UIC Early Profile

    • 82.3 PPG
    • 34.5% from 3
    • 80.2% FT
    • 10.3 SPG
    • Rebounding: 34.0 RPG (low nationally)

    HPU Early Profile

    • Offense: Flashes of elite efficiency, but perimeter shooting still below potential
    • Threes: Good looks, inconsistent finishes
    • Free throws: 70.9% — left points on the table
    • Defense: Improved discipline vs Canisius; forcing turnovers without fouling
    • Depth: One of HPU’s clearest advantages in neutral-site settings

    🧠 Coaching Notes: Rob Ehsan

    Year two in Chicago, and he’s shaping the Flames into a tough, pressure-heavy group.
    Key principles:

    • Aggressive on-ball pressure
    • Trapping in corners
    • Denying reversal passes
    • Ball-screen motion on offense
    • Adaptation to personnel — not rigid system-based
    • Wants physicality and grit every possession

    Expect UIC to test HPU’s ball security early and often.

    🏀 Matchup Outlook vs. High Point

    Pace Battle:
    Both teams want to run — but HPU runs with purpose. The Panthers are more controlled in transition and less turnover-prone. This is where HPU can control the “race line.”

    Shooting:
    This is the key storyline. UIC shoots the ball a lot and they shoot it well. Almost 40% of their shots come from deep and they’re cashing those in at a high clip. On the other end, UIC will over-help and gamble — meaning HPU will get catch-and-shoot looks. They simply need to knock these down with some more consistency than they have in recent games. 

    Size & Matchups:
    HPU’s wings (Fletcher, Washington, Anderson, Brady) match UIC’s length, but the Panthers should win physicality battles inside.

    Rebounding:
    This is where the game can separate. UIC’s numbers lag so HPU must finish plays and limit long rebounds that fuel UIC’s pace.

    Fouls & Free Throws:
    UIC shoots 80% at the stripe and they get there a lot! Almost 20 FTs a game. HPU cannot bail them out with unnecessary fouls in ball-screen coverage.

    🗝️ Keys for HPU

    1. Win the Glass — UIC struggles here; HPU must exploit it.
    2. Handle Pressure — calm ball movement burns aggressive defenses.
    3. Clean Perimeter Looks → Makes — Daytona is a great place to restart the rhythm.
    4. Physical Drives — UIC gives up straight-line penetration.
    5. Depth Advantage — push pace in waves, especially late.

    🔮 Toothsayer’s Take

    UIC is talented, newly assembled, and eager to prove last season wasn’t a fluke. Their pressure and pace can cause issues if you let them dictate rhythm. But High Point has the superior depth, the steadier guards, and a more stable identity.

    If HPU shoots to even its season average and controls the glass, the Panthers should be able to settle in and let their talent and depth take over. However, fans of college basketball and High Point in particular know how difficult and different these neutral site MTEs can be. Oftentimes being played at weird times, in different venues, and with sparse crowds. All of those factors can throw a wrench in the proverbial engine. Whoever adapts fastest and adapts best will come out on top. Let’s hope it’s the Panthers!

    Prediction:
    High Point 84, UIC 77

  • 🐾 Panther’s Toothsayer: Canisius Golden Griffins

    Mon, Nov 17 • Qubein Center

    📍 Series & Setting

    High Point and Canisius have met only once, a 78–70 Panther win in 2023 — and they enter Monday’s matchup carrying wildly different trajectories. 

    Canisius, the only Griffins in the D1 ranks, arrives from Buffalo at 2–2, picked last in the MAAC (13th of 13), but carrying something they didn’t have a year ago: actual depth and athleticism. Jim Christian rebuilt the roster with 7 transfers and 4 freshmen, moving away from last season’s historically thin rotation.

    High Point is 3–1, but the last outing was a harsh reality check: a 90–66 loss at UAB, a game many circled as HPU’s toughest non-conference test — but not one that was expected to unravel the way it did. For a Blazer team that struggled early, HPU’s performance was flat, sloppy, and uncharacteristically disconnected.

    The good news?
    This is the perfect get-right spot. The Panthers return home, where they’re 16–1 across the last two seasons, and face a Canisius team whose weaknesses line up cleanly with HPU’s strengths.

    🔍 Overview

    Canisius is rebuilding from the ground up after a 3–28 season. They’ve shown flashes:

    • Near-upset of St. Bonaventure (89–70 loss but competitive stretches)
    • A gritty win vs Mercyhurst (58–55)
    • A comfortable win over Allegheny

    …but they’ve also been blown out twice and still profile as a bottom-tier D-I team.

    Their numbers say it plainly:

    • Offensive Efficiency: 97.3 (343rd)
    • Defensive Efficiency: 113.8 (326th)
    • Opp. eFG% allowed: 63.3% — fourth-worst in the country
    • OR% and DR%: Bottom 40 nationally
    • Bench minutes: High, but production inconsistent

    High Point, meanwhile, brings top-70 efficiency and elite tempo… but has to address its most glaring current issue:

    🎯 High Point’s Shooting Problem

    Coming into the season, shooting was supposed to be a signature strength: Washington, Brady, Hausen, Martinez, Fletcher… all capable shooters.

    Instead:

    • 34.5 3P%: Down from last season
    • 70.1 FT% – Not nearly good enough from a team built with so many shooters
    • Washington, Brady, Martinez: All shooting below expected career marks
    • Last game at UAB:
      • 4-for-23 from three (17%)
      • FT struggles compounded scoring droughts
      • A season-worst offensive rhythm

    Simply put:
    The UAB game was pitiful by HPU standards — especially after the early hype and the “maybe they can go undefeated” whispers that Jeff Goodman helped sprinkle around.

    It was always unrealistic, but the wake-up call might be exactly what this team needs to lock in.

    ⚙️ Canisius Team Identity: Rebuild Mode with Real Athletes

    Grit & Depth: Christian’s new roster is crowded with long wings, rim runners, and guards who can attack in transition.
    0.5-Second Offense: Shoot it, drive it, or swing it — fast.
    Motion & Elbow Touches: They like initiating offense above the elbows with cutters and drive opportunities.
    Defensive Instability: They’ll mix man and a sagging zone, but neither has held up well.

    Weaknesses that matter for HPU:

    • Rebounding remains awful (31.3 RPG, bottom of D-I)
    • Rim protection inconsistent despite Wilmoth
    • Paint defense atrocious — allowing 63% on 2s
    • Turnovers spike vs teams with length
    • Offense goes dead for long stretches

    This is exactly the type of opponent HPU can overwhelm if they clean up the shooting and get back to pace & pressure.

    🧩 Key Golden Griffins

    ⭐ Bryan Ndjonga – 6’9 F (14.3 PPG, 6.7 RPG)

    Mobile, versatile, best athlete on the team. Scores at all three levels but is streaky.

    ⭐ Kahlil Singleton – 6’3 G (11.7 PPG)

    The real shooter. Career 39% from deep. Must find him early in transition.

    Chris Kumu – 6’4 G (10.0 PPG)

    Freshman with explosive burst, elite vertical, and a slasher’s mentality. Creates chaos.

    Mike Evbagharu – 6’4 G/F (8.0 PPG, 5.7 RPG)

    A physical, undersized forward with MAAC experience. Plays bigger than listed.

    Myles Wilmoth – 6’10 C

    One of the league’s best shot blockers (former Butler/Siena). Limited offensively.

    Brendan Oliver – 6’6 W

    Bench shooter with length. Can impact defensively.

    📊 Tempo-Free Snapshot

    Canisius Defense:

    • 63.3% allowed on 2s (344th)
    • 39% allowed on 3s
    • 12.2% TO rate forced (terrible)

    HPU Offense:

    • Top-70 efficiency
    • Top-35 tempo
    • Shooting slump but elite at generating open looks
    • Turnover rate among the best in the Big South

    HPU Defense:

    • Still forcing turnovers at a high rate
    • Strong perimeter length
    • Rebounding improving game over game

    Canisius Offense:

    • Good FT shooting (59–76% range)
    • Above-average from three
    • Struggles violently inside the arc
    • Doesn’t create second-chance points

    This matchup heavily tilts toward HPU’s perimeter pressure, transition game, and physicality.

    🧠 Coaching Notes

    Jim Christian (Year 2, 323 career wins)

    • True motion guy
    • Wants tempo + spacing
    • Wants depth-based line changes
    • Not afraid to switch defenses

    Adjustments to expect:

    • Early 5-out looks to pull HPU bigs away from the paint
    • Zone possessions whenever HPU’s shooters look cold
    • Singleton/Kumu staggered for continuous dribble pressure
    • Heavy reliance on Ndjonga mismatches

    🏀 Matchup Outlook vs High Point

    1. HPU’s Shooting Reset

    This is the game to re-establish rhythm:

    • Canisius gives up elite-quality looks
    • They don’t guard the glass
    • They foul a lot
    • They can’t keep athletes in front
    • They don’t defend ball screens well

    If HPU can’t shoot well in this matchup, that’s a genuine concern — but indicators point to a bounce-back.

    2. Guard Size Advantage

    Washington, Brady, Fletcher, and Anderson can bully smaller Griff guards.

    3. Turnovers → Tempo

    Canisius struggles with live-ball turnovers.
    HPU thrives on them.

    4. Paint Touches Win the Game

    Aquino + Fletcher in the high post should shred the Griffs’ interior.

    5. Interior Physicality

    Wilmoth can block shots.
    He cannot guard in space.
    HPU will pull him into ball screens repeatedly.

    🗝️ Keys for HPU

    • Reset the Shooting → Hunt quality catch-and-shoot 3s early
    • Win the Glass by 10+ → This is a must
    • Target Singleton & Kumu defensively → Make them work both ends
    • Run on everything → Canisius transition defense is shaky
    • Stay disciplined → They hunt whistles to keep games close

    🔮 Toothsayer’s Take

    Canisius is better than last season, deeper, and more athletic — but still very raw and still extremely limited on the boards and in the paint. Their defensive metrics are a giant blinking invitation for HPU to get back to themselves after the UAB meltdown.

    High Point should control pace, create clean looks, and use their size across all three levels. Expect a few early jitters after the UAB loss, but once the Panthers settle, the gap in talent, chemistry, and athletic depth widens quickly.

    Prediction:
    🎯 High Point 86, Canisius 68
    A needed reset, a return to form, and a chance to rebuild confidence before the schedule stiffens again in their MTE down in Daytona.

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