Media Day is over, the preseason projections are in, and every Big South coach has a reason to believe his team will exceed expectations. Now comes the difficult part: proving it.
October is a wonderful time to be a college basketball coach.
The transfers are fitting in perfectly. The returning players have taken another step. The freshmen are ahead of schedule. The roster is deeper, more athletic, and better suited to the system than it was a year ago.
And, perhaps most importantly, nobody has lost a game yet.
Wednesday’s Big South Media Day offered plenty of that familiar preseason optimism. Across nine men’s basketball programs, coaches outlined their offseason priorities, introduced their new-look rosters, and explained why the coming season could look different from the last.
Some of those explanations were more convincing than others.
Fortunately, we don’t have to rely exclusively on what the coaches told us. With preseason projections from KenPom, Bart Torvik, and EvanMiya now available, we can begin separating the optimism from the evidence.
And the evidence points toward a familiar conclusion.
The Big South still runs through High Point.
The Panthers enter 2026–27 as two-time defending conference tournament champions, winners of 31 games last season, and fresh off the program’s first NCAA Tournament victory over Wisconsin.
But this isn’t simply a case of the defending champion receiving the benefit of the doubt.
All three major analytical systems project High Point among the nation’s top 70 teams. None projects another Big South program inside the top 190.
Most of the coaches agree. High Point received seven of nine first-place votes in the preseason poll, while four Panthers earned preseason All-Conference recognition, including three First Team selections.
The question entering the season isn’t necessarily whether High Point should be favored.
It’s whether anyone has assembled a convincing argument for why the Panthers won’t dominate the league again.
The Big South, According to the Numbers
Before examining the individual teams, it’s worth understanding just how dramatically the analytical projections separate High Point from the rest of the conference.
| Team | KenPom | Torvik | EvanMiya | Coaches Poll |
| High Point | 61 | 68 | 63 | 1 |
| Presbyterian | 215 | 234 | 193 | 2 |
| Winthrop | 205 | 232 | 198 | 3 |
| Longwood | 198 | 218 | 218 | 4 |
| Radford | 254 | 283 | 246 | 6 |
| UNC Asheville | 302 | 279 | 271 | 5 |
| Charleston Southern | 306 | 325 | 292 | 7 |
| USC Upstate | 335 | 345 | 356 | 8 |
| Gardner-Webb | 350 | 354 | 345 | 9 |
Rankings reflect preseason projections as of October 15, 2026.
Three independent models place High Point between No. 61 and No. 68 nationally. That degree of agreement is notable, particularly when considering how much roster turnover has become a defining characteristic of modern college basketball.
The models are similarly aligned on the Panthers’ projected identity. KenPom projects the nation’s No. 52 offense and No. 82 defense. Torvik has High Point at No. 53 offensively and No. 90 defensively. EvanMiya sees the Panthers at No. 58 and No. 84, respectively.
In other words, these systems aren’t arriving at similar overall rankings through wildly different assumptions.
They’re projecting essentially the same team: a nationally competitive offense paired with a legitimate top-100 defense.
The rest of the conference is another story.
Presbyterian, Winthrop, and Longwood form a relatively compact second tier. Radford sits somewhere between that group and the rebuilding programs. Asheville and Charleston Southern have significant questions, while USC Upstate and Gardner-Webb are projected near the bottom of Division I.
Both KenPom and Torvik project High Point to finish 15–1 in conference play.
Neither projects another Big South team to finish better than 9–7.
That’s the statistical landscape. Here’s what the coaches believe could change it.
1. High Point: The Standard Has Changed
Head Coach: Flynn Clayman, Year 2
Preseason Rankings: KenPom 61 | Torvik 68 | EvanMiya 63
Coaches Poll: 1st
For most programs, losing the conference tournament’s MVP and 3 All-Conference players plus several other significant contributors would create considerable uncertainty.
High Point simply went shopping.
The Panthers added South Florida point guard CJ Brown, Monmouth wing Jason Rivera-Torres, Oakland forward Isaac Garrett, Tulane guard Curtis Williams Jr., and several additional pieces to a roster already featuring Cam’Ron Fletcher, Conrad Martinez, and Braden Hausen.
The result is an unusual concentration of talent for the Big South.
Fletcher enters the season as the conference’s Preseason Player of the Year. Rivera-Torres and Brown joined him on the First Team, while Garrett earned Second Team recognition. That’s four of the conference’s ten preseason All-Conference selections.
And the analytical projections suggest the roster might be even deeper than those awards indicate. Torvik projects Garrett, Rivera-Torres, Filip Brankovic, and Frankquon Sherman as four of the five most productive players in the conference by its projected BPM measure. Fletcher and Martinez also appear among the top seven.
Those projections shouldn’t be mistaken for an actual ranking of the league’s best players, but they illustrate something important.
High Point’s advantage isn’t confined to its starting lineup.
What Clayman Told Us
During Media Day, Clayman offered an intriguing update on the Panthers’ backcourt.
Flynn was asked about High Point’s run of lead-guard play and mentioned the duos: Duke Miles – Kezza Giffa, Kezza – Bobby Pettiford, Rob Martin – Conrad Martinez. But when discussing Brown and Martinez, he specifically identified freshman Trey Pearson as part of a three-guard “trifecta,” praising the newcomer’s development throughout the preseason.
Pearson arrived with considerable upside, but freshmen often face an adjustment period before earning substantial minutes on veteran teams. Clayman’s comments suggest Pearson is already competing for a legitimate role.
Clayman was equally enthusiastic about Brown.
The South Florida transfer averaged 10.9 points and 4.7 assists last season, but Clayman believes his offensive production could increase significantly in High Point’s perimeter-oriented system.
The fit is obvious. Brown is an explosive downhill guard joining an offense built around spacing, driving lanes, and creating advantages.
Clayman described the situation as Brown being like a kid in a candy store.
What the Numbers Say
There are still questions.
Brown’s shooting efficiency is one. Torvik’s individual projections are notably less enthusiastic about his scoring than the coaches’ preseason All-Conference selections suggest.
Replacing Owen Aquino’s interior presence is another.
But the latter concern may be overstated within the context of the Big South.
Garrett averaged 13.7 points, 7.1 rebounds, and a block per game at Oakland. Sherman brings athleticism and rebounding. Brankovic provides additional size and interior finishing, while Fletcher remains one of the league’s most productive rebounders. High Point might not have a traditional center who replicates Aquino’s role individually, but it possesses enough frontcourt options to replace much of that production collectively.
The more immediate concern is Rivera-Torres’ health. Clayman acknowledged that the Monmouth transfer was still working back from injury and wasn’t yet at full strength.
The Verdict: High Point doesn’t need everything to go right to win the Big South. It probably needs several things to go wrong to lose it.
The more interesting question is whether this roster can match—or surpass—the national accomplishments of last year’s team.
2. Presbyterian: Continuity Is the Counterargument
Head Coach: Quinton Ferrell, Year 5
Preseason Rankings: KenPom 215 | Torvik 234 | EvanMiya 193
Coaches Poll: 2nd
If High Point represents one approach to modern roster construction, Presbyterian represents another.
While much of the conference spent the offseason replacing departing players, Quinton Ferrell retained nearly his entire core. The Blue Hose return 11 letterwinners, including three preseason All-Conference selections: Carl Parrish, Jaylen Peterson, and Triston Wilson.
Only High Point placed more players on the preseason teams.
In a league defined by roster turnover, that kind of continuity is increasingly unusual.
What Ferrell Told Us
Ferrell wasn’t particularly interested in downplaying expectations.
He acknowledged voting Presbyterian first in the preseason poll and indicated that UNC Asheville coach Mike Morrell was responsible for the other first-place vote the Blue Hose received.
Whether those votes represent legitimate championship expectations or a little preseason gamesmanship is less important than the broader point. Presbyterian believes it has a roster capable of competing near the top of the league. And unlike most of its competitors, that belief is built around players who have already competed together.
What the Numbers Say
EvanMiya is considerably more optimistic about Presbyterian than KenPom or Torvik, placing the Blue Hose at No. 193 nationally.
But the models identify a common concern: offense. KenPom projects Presbyterian’s offense No. 212 nationally. Torvik has it No. 249. EvanMiya also projects it outside the top 200.
Parrish provides proven perimeter scoring, while Peterson offers an established frontcourt presence. Wilson adds another experienced option.
The question is whether Presbyterian can consistently create efficient offense against the league’s better defenses.
That makes the development of Erik Taylor and the team’s point guard play particularly important.
The Verdict: Presbyterian has perhaps the strongest argument for outperforming its preseason projections because its continuity is real, not hypothetical.
But continuity alone doesn’t guarantee improvement.
The Blue Hose must demonstrate that bringing back last year’s roster also means bringing back a better offense.
3. Winthrop: Plenty of Offense, Plenty of Questions
Head Coach: Mark Prosser, Year 6
Preseason Rankings: KenPom 205 | Torvik 232 | EvanMiya 198
Coaches Poll: 3rd
Winthrop remains one of the Big South’s most consistent programs. The Eagles have appeared in three consecutive conference championship games, including last season’s loss to High Point.
But this year’s roster looks considerably different.
Prosser is replacing much of the veteran production that helped Winthrop finish second in the league last season.
What Prosser Told Us
One player expected to assume a larger role is Seifeldin Hendawy. The 6-foot-8 wing averaged just 5.7 points last season but acknowledged during Media Day that he expects significantly more offensive opportunities.
Winthrop also added Gardner-Webb transfer Spence Sims, one of the conference’s most dangerous perimeter shooters. Sims connected on 43% of his three-point attempts last season, giving Prosser an established shooting threat around whom to construct the offense.
What the Numbers Say
The analytical systems generally like Winthrop’s offensive potential. KenPom projects the Eagles’ offense No. 154 nationally, the best among High Point’s challengers.
But the defense is another matter.
KenPom projects Winthrop No. 275 defensively, while Torvik has the Eagles No. 266. That’s a substantial imbalance.
Another interesting player is George Natsvlishvili, the 6-foot-10 transfer projected by Torvik to average 13.5 points and 7.6 rebounds. If he provides that level of interior production, Winthrop’s roster becomes considerably more balanced.
The Verdict: Winthrop may have the best offensive ceiling among High Point’s challengers.
Whether the Eagles can defend well enough to turn that offense into a championship contender is a different question.
4. Longwood: A Specific Problem, a Specific Solution
Head Coach: Ronnie Thomas, Year 2
Preseason Rankings: KenPom 198 | Torvik 218 | EvanMiya 218
Coaches Poll: 4th
Of all the interviews at Media Day, Ronnie Thomas may have offered the clearest explanation of what his team needed to improve.
Longwood struggled to consistently generate paint touches last season. So Thomas went looking for players who could create them.
What Thomas Told Us
The additions of MJ Williams and TJ Robinson were intentional.
Thomas described both as elite paint-touch players capable of getting downhill and creating opportunities for teammates. Williams arrives from Eastern Kentucky after averaging approximately 10 points and four assists per game. Robinson brings another attacking presence and an ability to draw fouls.
The theory is straightforward: get into the paint, force defensive rotations, and create better opportunities for the rest of the offense.
Longwood also benefited from an offseason trip to Italy, providing additional practices and competitive opportunities for a largely reconstructed roster.
What the Numbers Say
KenPom is actually higher on Longwood than either Presbyterian or Winthrop, ranking the Lancers No. 198 nationally.
Torvik projects a balanced offensive attack led by Alphonzo Billups III, Williams, Robinson, and Jaylen Benard.
But the frontcourt remains a question.
Lazar Milosevic and Kany Musungay offer size and upside, although neither arrives with extensive proven production at this level.
The Verdict: Longwood’s case is appealing because Thomas identified a specific weakness and recruited directly to address it.
That doesn’t guarantee the solution will work.But it’s a more convincing preseason argument than simply claiming the roster has improved.
5. UNC Asheville: Getting Back to Morrell Basketball
Head Coach: Mike Morrell, Year 9
Preseason Rankings: KenPom 302 | Torvik 279 | EvanMiya 271
Coaches Poll: 5th
Last season was a frustrating one for UNC Asheville. Despite having two of the best players in the conference the lack of depth reared its ugly head and caused issues for Morrell’s team.
The Bulldogs finished 15–17, dealing with injuries, inconsistent production, and a roster that struggled to play the way Morrell preferred.
His message at Media Day was that this year’s team should be different.
What Morrell Told Us
Morrell emphasized improved depth, better shooting, and a roster more capable of executing his preferred style. Rather than promising a dramatic philosophical overhaul, Morrell believes the new personnel will allow Asheville to return to the basketball that previously made his program successful.
The Bulldogs added several guards, including Ja’Corey Lipkins, Kelcy Phipps, and Khayri Dunn.
Jaylon Johnson, previously at Radford, could also be an important contributor depending on his eligibility and his plans.
Morrell also doubled down on a previous interview this summer with the Daly Dose of Hoops podcast. He continued his support of Quentin Ferrell’s roster as the best in the conference with a first place vote while seemingly minimizing Flynn’s impact on the High Point program.
What the Numbers Say
The models aren’t especially impressed. All three project Asheville outside the national top 270.
The biggest concern is offense.
Torvik projects Asheville No. 286 offensively, while EvanMiya places the Bulldogs No. 290.
That suggests the improvements Morrell discussed haven’t yet translated into a particularly compelling statistical projection.
The Verdict: Asheville has an established coach with a proven track record, but its projected offense leaves plenty to prove.
If the Bulldogs are genuinely deeper and better shooting, we should see evidence relatively quickly. Until then, Morrell’s optimism remains an argument rather than a conclusion.
6. Radford: Building on a Strong Finish
Head Coach: Zach Chu, Year 2
Preseason Rankings: KenPom 254 | Torvik 283 | EvanMiya 246
Coaches Poll: 6th
Radford might be one of the more interesting teams in the conference. Last year the Highlanders were a sexy pick due to Zach Chu’s shopping in the transfer portal with TriColor’s credit card.
The trio of: Jaylon Johnson, Del Jones, Dennis Parker Jr. was a very dangerous looking lineup for the Big South but Radford started the season slow.
After the difficult start to Chu’s first season, the Highlanders improved considerably and ultimately finished third in the Big South.
Now all three of those players are gone along with leading rebounder Tyson Brown and sharpshooting Lukas Walls but Chu is preaching continuity and his scheme for the upcoming year.
What Chu Told Us
Radford returns five players, a significant number in the modern Big South.
Chu emphasized how valuable that familiarity has been after spending much of his first season establishing expectations and teaching his system. He pointed to the later season run as proof of concept in his coaching.
He also made it clear that the Highlanders intend to play fast.
What the Numbers Say
The pace projections support that expectation. Torvik projects Radford No. 71 nationally in adjusted tempo, while EvanMiya has the Highlanders No. 36. That’s a substantial stylistic commitment.
Radford also has several intriguing newcomers, including Jordyn Kee, Ja’Corey Robinson, and Mathieu Grujicic.
Torvik projects Kee to lead the team in scoring at 14.1 points per game.
The challenge is determining how quickly that talent can translate into reliable production.
The Verdict: Radford has a credible argument for outperforming its preseason ranking.
The Highlanders improved as last season progressed, retained several contributors, and now have a second year of familiarity with Chu’s system.
They’re worth watching as a potential spoiler.
7. Charleston Southern: The League’s Most Unusual Experiment
Head Coach: Saah Nimley, Year 3
Preseason Rankings: KenPom 306 | Torvik 325 | EvanMiya 292
Coaches Poll: 7th
Charleston Southern might be the most stylistically interesting team in the conference. Nimley has emphasized length, athleticism, and defensive versatility throughout his tenure. This year’s roster could take those principles to an extreme.
What Nimley Told Us
During Media Day, Nimley discussed the possibility of playing two seven-footers together.
That’s not something Big South teams typically encounter.
The Buccaneers have assembled considerable size, and Nimley believes the roster has the versatility to experiment with unconventional combinations. He also emphasized the importance of retaining established contributors while continuing to recruit players who fit his preferred defensive identity.
What the Numbers Say
Here’s where things get interesting. Despite all that size, Charleston Southern is projected to play extremely fast.
Torvik projects the Buccaneers seventh nationally in adjusted tempo. EvanMiya has them 11th.
Those projections suggest a team attempting to combine unusual frontcourt size with one of the fastest playing styles in the country. Whether that combination works is another matter.
The defensive projections vary considerably. EvanMiya is relatively optimistic at No. 247, while Torvik projects the Buccaneers No. 331.
The Verdict: Charleston Southern might not be particularly good, but it could be exceptionally difficult to prepare for.
The possibility of enormous lineups playing at breakneck speed makes the Buccaneers one of the conference’s most intriguing experiments. And playing in the BucDome with it’s tight walls and odd sightlines always makes things difficult. It’s a potential equalizer against much more talented rosters.
8. USC Upstate: Better Players, Same Questions?
Head Coach: Marty Richter, Year 3
Preseason Rankings: KenPom 335 | Torvik 345 | EvanMiya 356
Coaches Poll: 8th
USC Upstate improved last season, but another offseason of roster turnover leaves Richter with significant work ahead.
The Spartans return very little proven production.
What Richter Told Us
Richter expressed confidence in the team’s improved size and the quality of its newcomers. He believes the program is gradually moving toward a more sustainable roster-building approach, even while dealing with the turnover that has become common throughout the conference.
What the Numbers Say
The projections are unforgiving. KenPom ranks Upstate No. 335. Torvik has the Spartans No. 345. EvanMiya places them No. 356.
Torvik projects Zachary Johnson and Miles Webb as the team’s leading scorers, with both averaging more than 13 points per game.
But individual production doesn’t necessarily translate into team success.
The Spartans could have several legitimate contributors while still struggling to compete consistently.
The Verdict: Richter might be correct that his newcomers represent meaningful upgrades.
The challenge is that the roster has so little established Division I production that the models remain deeply skeptical. Upstate has plenty to prove.
9. Gardner-Webb: Can Additional Investment Change the Trajectory?
Head Coach: Jeremy Luther, Year 3
Preseason Rankings: KenPom 350 | Torvik 354 | EvanMiya 345
Coaches Poll: 9th
Gardner-Webb enters the season trying to recover from a disastrous 2025–26 campaign. The Runnin’ Bulldogs finished 4–29 overall and 1–15 in conference play.
Luther didn’t pretend otherwise during Media Day.
What Luther Told Us
He acknowledged that last year’s roster simply wasn’t talented enough to compete consistently. More importantly, Luther indicated that the program has received additional institutional support to improve its ability to acquire players so they didn’t lose the game “coming off the bus.”
That’s potentially significant for a school competing in a conference with substantial financial disparities.
The Bulldogs return Jacob Hudson, Jamias Ferere, and Ace Talbert while adding several newcomers, including Seth Brown.
What the Numbers Say
The models aren’t buying the turnaround yet. All three rank Gardner-Webb between No. 345 and No. 354 nationally. Torvik projects the nation’s No. 354 defense, while EvanMiya has the Bulldogs No. 349 offensively.
Those are difficult projections to overcome.
The Verdict: Luther’s comments about increased resources are worth remembering because they provide context for the program’s rebuilding efforts. But claiming the roster is better and demonstrating that improvement against Division I competition are two different things.
Gardner-Webb remains firmly in prove-it territory.
The Big South’s Most Interesting Divide: Speed vs. Control
One underappreciated storyline entering the season is the enormous difference in projected playing styles.
Torvik projects Charleston Southern to play at the seventh-fastest tempo nationally.
Winthrop is projected 28th, while Radford is 71st.
At the opposite end, Presbyterian is projected 342nd and UNC Asheville 324th.
That’s a remarkable range within a nine-team conference.
It also creates some fascinating potential matchups.
Can Presbyterian slow Winthrop’s offensive attack into a half-court game?
Can Charleston Southern successfully deploy enormous lineups while playing at one of the fastest tempos in Division I?
Can Radford’s aggressive approach generate enough easy opportunities to overcome its offensive limitations?
And perhaps most importantly, can any of these contrasting styles meaningfully disrupt High Point?
Clayman’s Panthers are comfortable playing quickly, but their efficiency isn’t dependent on tempo alone. They can generate offense through transition opportunities, perimeter creation, and an increasingly versatile collection of frontcourt players.
That flexibility could make them especially difficult to challenge.
Final Thoughts: The Models Aren’t Always Right, but Someone Has to Prove Them Wrong
There’s a temptation every October to manufacture a competitive conference race.
Coaches provide optimistic assessments. Transfers arrive with impressive résumés or are unknowns that can be dreamed upon. Returning players are expected to improve.
Every program can construct a plausible explanation for why this season will be different. And sometimes those explanations prove correct.
But the analytical picture entering 2026–27 is unusually clear.
High Point is projected to be a nationally competitive team.
Presbyterian, Winthrop, and Longwood are projected to be competitive Big South teams.
Those are not the same thing.
Presbyterian believes continuity can close the gap.
Winthrop is betting on offensive talent, free throw rates, and expanded roles.
Longwood recruited specifically to address its inability to consistently attack the paint.
Radford believes another year in Zach Chu’s system will accelerate its development.
Asheville expects improved depth and shooting to restore its identity.
Charleston Southern is experimenting with unusual size and speed.
USC Upstate and Gardner-Webb believe their reconstructed rosters represent meaningful improvements.
Each has an argument.
Some are supported by established production. Others rely heavily on projections, player development, or the assumption that new pieces will fit together.
And none has yet been tested against actual competition.
That’s the beauty—and the danger—of Media Day.
October is when every coach gets to explain why his team will be better. November is when the evidence starts arriving.
For High Point, the expectations are already established.
The Panthers aren’t merely trying to win another conference championship. They’re attempting to build on the most successful season in program and conference history while continuing to establish themselves as a nationally relevant mid-major.
For everyone else, the challenge is considerably more immediate.
They must first prove they belong in the same conversation.
And until somebody does, the Big South remains High Point’s conference to lose.
Sources: Big South Conference 2026–27 preseason coaches poll and All-Conference selections; October 14 Field of 68 Big South Media Day interviews; preseason KenPom, Bart Torvik, and EvanMiya projections as of October 15, 2026. Statistical projections are estimates, not actual 2026–27 performance.