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Getting started can be the hardest part.
Success is earned, one step at a time. One of the most invaluable skills a person can have is being able to clearly express what it is they want.
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🐾 Panther’s Toothsayer: Pfeiffer Falcons
Sun, Dec. 28 • Qubein Center • High Point, NC
📍 Context & Stakes: Closing the Book on 2025
This is the final chapter of High Point’s non-conference schedule—and the final game of 2025. It’s not a measuring-stick matchup in the traditional sense, but it is a tone-setter.
High Point enters at 11–3, riding dominant performances and owning one of the most efficient offenses in the country. Pfeiffer arrives from Division III, well-rested after over three weeks off, but facing a massive jump in speed, length, and physicality.
This game isn’t really about proving who High Point is. It’s about reinforcing how they play before Big South play begins. Sunday provides a nice tune up before a tough road matchup at UNC Asheville.
🔍 Pfeiffer Snapshot: Style Over Size
Pfeiffer is a legitimate D3 program under Pete Schoch, the reigning USA South regular-season and tournament champion coach. His teams play fast, share the ball, and score in bunches but the profile shows clear vulnerabilities when facing size and pressure.
What they want:
- Up-tempo pace
- Early offense
- Ball movement and rhythm threes
What’s hurt them:
- Turnovers (15+ per game)
- Rebounding deficits
- Interior defense against physical teams
- Transition defense under pressure
Their last game—a 101–55 loss at Longwood—was a harsh reminder of the gap when tempo meets D1 athleticism.
⚙️ The Matchup Reality
This is a contrast in ecosystems.
High Point brings:
- Top-tier offensive efficiency
- Elite ball security (sub-10 TOs/game)
- Depth that doesn’t drop the level
- Relentless pressure that turns mistakes into avalanches
Pfeiffer brings:
- Confidence in their system
- A couple capable scorers (Doug Smith, Sean Sucarichi)
- Energy but limited answers if the game speeds up beyond control
🧠 The Bigger Picture: Non-Conference in Review
This non-conference slate has told us something important:
- The offense is real
High Point is averaging 93+ PPG, with an offensive rating significantly better than last year’s NCAA Tournament team. - The ball moves
Assist rates are up. Turnovers are down. Decisions are cleaner. - The depth is undeniable
Multiple games with injuries or absences—and the level never dipped. - The ceiling is higher
This team scores more efficiently, forces more mistakes, and plays faster without being reckless.
Against lower-division opponents this year, High Point has averaged 128 points with margins approaching 80 points. That’s not just talent—it’s structure and intent.
🗝️ Keys for High Point
1️⃣ Professional Start – No easing into it
2️⃣ Defensive Pressure Without Gambling
3️⃣ Win the Glass Early – Remove second chances
4️⃣ Bench Impact – Keep the pace punishing
5️⃣ Health & Rhythm – Get out clean, get everyone minutes
🔮 Toothsayer’s Take
Pfeiffer deserves respect as a successful program, but this matchup is about High Point sharpening habits, not surviving a test.
The Panthers are faster, deeper, stronger, and more connected on both ends. If they play with focus, this becomes another statement of who they are heading into January.
This is about closing 2025 with confidence, clarity, and momentum.
Prediction:
High Point 112, Pfeiffer 61
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🐾 Panther’s Toothsayer: La Salle Explorers
Fri, Dec 19 • Qubein Center • High Point, NC
📍 Context & Stakes: Familiar Faces, Different Jerseys
High Point returns home after a record-setting victory over Mary Baldwin, sitting at 9–3—a record that, oddly, still feels a bit hollow. For a roster this talented, losses to Southern Illinois and App State linger. Those were games the Panthers had chances to close and didn’t.
Now comes La Salle, a team built with many of the same traits that have bothered High Point over the last month.
This matchup also carries some history and scars.
La Salle arrives 4–7, ranked outside the top 250 in most efficiency models, but led by a very familiar face. Darris Nichols, now in his first season at La Salle, went 2–8 against High Point while at Radford, losing seven straight to the Panthers and never winning in the Qubein Center. His last meeting with HPU was a Big South Tournament semifinal nail-biter, where High Point survived and went on to a historic postseason run.
Several of Nichols’ most trusted players followed him north: Truth Harris, Josiah Harris, and Justin Archer. They’ve played in this building, felt this crowd, and would love nothing more than a little revenge.
La Salle isn’t a good shooting team. They crash the glass relentlessly, value the ball, and are coached by an experienced staff with guards who know how not to beat themselves. Unfortunately for High Point, those exact traits have exposed cracks in Flynn Clayman’s squad recently.
Can he adjust?
This feels like an important measuring stick before conference play begins.
🔍 Overview: What La Salle Is Trying to Be
Nichols didn’t take the La Salle job to tread water. His blueprint is clear and unapologetic:
- Play fast enough to stress depth
- Pressure the rim
- Crash the glass relentlessly
- Win at the foul line
- Rotate bodies in waves
This roster is almost entirely new—15 newcomers, heavy on graduate transfers and older bodies. The goal is simple: throw experience and physicality at opponents and dominate possessions.
La Salle Snapshot
- AdjO: ~101
- AdjD: ~109
- Tempo: ~66 (slow-to-moderate)
- Strengths: Offensive rebounding, free-throw generation, size
- Weaknesses: Shot creation, ball security, consistent shooting
They want games decided by extra possessions, where missed shots become second chances and whistles become oxygen.
⚙️ Team Identity: “Rebound That Jawn”
Nichols’ teams reflect his roots—Bob Huggins toughness with portal-era pragmatism.
1️⃣ Doing the Dirty Work
La Salle:
- Shoots a below-average volume of threes
- Converts better inside than outside
- Draws fouls at a healthy clip
- Lives off put-backs and free throws
This is not a spacing offense. It’s a lean-on-you, wear-you-down approach.
2️⃣ Depth as a Weapon
Nichols is comfortable playing 10–12 bodies to win the possession battle. It’s less about stars and more about cumulative damage. Fresh legs matter—especially when opponents lose discipline.
3️⃣ Defense by Discomfort
La Salle mixes looks:
- Pressure man
- Zone possessions
- Switching lineups with length at the 3–5
They don’t force many turnovers, but they make scoring uncomfortable—especially if you settle.
🧩 Key Explorers to Know
⭐ Jaeden Marshall (6’5 Sr G)
Primary scorer and spacer
- ~12 ppg
- Best perimeter shooting threat
- Can score off the catch or bounce
HPU Key: Chase him off clean looks. Make him finish over length.
⭐ Josiah Harris (6’9 Sr F)
The lunchpail
- Elite motor
- Offensive rebounding machine
- Familiar face who knows exactly how Nichols wants to play
HPU Key: First hit, second jump. No free lanes to the rim.
⭐ Justin Archer (6’7 Sr F)
Glue guy
- Strong rebounder
- Efficient around the basket
- Former Radford piece who thrives in chaos
HPU Key: Box him out every possession. He’s hunting loose balls.
⭐ Truth Harris (6’2 Sr G)
Change-of-pace catalyst
- Elite straight-line speed
- Best transition threat on the roster
- Comfortable attacking gaps before the defense is set
- Knows Nichols’ system inside and out
Harris isn’t a volume scorer, but he’s dangerous in chaos. He thrives when the game gets loose—long rebounds, broken floor balance, early-clock attacks. He’ll pressure the rim, force rotations, and create foul situations even when he isn’t finishing.
HPU Key: Sprint back, load early, and keep him out of transition. Make him operate in the half court and live with contested pull-ups.
⭐ Eric Acker / Ashton Walker (PG combo)
- Physical guards
- Can get downhill
- Not elite shooters
HPU Key: Go under screens, wall the paint, dare pull-ups.
🧱 Frontcourt Depth: Bodies on Bodies
La Salle throws size in waves:
- Edwin Daniel: Elite JUCO rebounder, raw but active
- Jerome Brewer: Stretch-capable forward with a nose for the ball
- Noah Collier: Big body with touch around the rim
- Nas Hart / Bowyn Beatty: Developmental length
HPU Key: Gang rebound. This is a five-man responsibility.
📊 Matchup Snapshot: On a Napkin
La Salle wants:
- Second chances
- Fouls
- Physicality
- Ugly basketball
High Point wants:
- Elite efficiency
- Low turnovers
- High assist rate
- Clean pace and spacing
Translation:
If this game is played clean, it heavily favors High Point.
If it becomes a whistle-and-rebound grinder, La Salle stays alive far longer than the metrics suggest.
🧠 Coaching Chess: Clayman vs. Nichols
Nichols knows this building—and he knows what hasn’t worked here.
Clayman’s challenge is simple but revealing:
- When pressure doesn’t create turnovers…
- When the game slows…
- When the paint is crowded…
Can High Point adjust without losing its identity?
This is a measuring-stick game for composure, not talent.
🗝️ Keys for High Point
1️⃣ Finish Defensive Possessions – No tip-outs, no freebies
2️⃣ Win the Math – Threes over twos, efficiency over volume
3️⃣ Stay Vertical – Contest without fouling
4️⃣ Force La Salle to Shoot Over You – Not through you
5️⃣ Tempo with Purpose – Push selectively, not recklessly
6️⃣ Bench Impact – Depth should widen the gap, not shrink it
🔮 Toothsayer’s Take
In many ways, this is exactly the test Clayman and the Panthers need.
La Salle brings the same qualities that have troubled High Point this season: physicality, rebounding, discipline, and guards who don’t panic. They’re tougher than their record suggests and more experienced than their ranking implies.
Nichols will have his team ready. They’ll rebound. They’ll scrap. They’ll test discipline. And we’ve already seen teams that don’t shoot particularly well—or often—give this HPU defense problems.
Will history repeat itself?
The Qubein Center has not been kind to Nichols or the Radford core that followed him to Philadelphia. Can they finally exorcise those demons?
If High Point stays connected defensively and doesn’t let the game devolve into a whistle parade, the Panthers should have enough firepower to close this one out.
Prediction:
High Point 82, La Salle 75
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🐾 Panther’s Toothsayer: Southern Illinois Salukis
Wed, Dec 3 • Qubein Center • High Point, NC
📍 Series & Setting
High Point continues its homestand now sitting at 7–1 with elite national metrics, especially on the offensive side. Many of HPU’s recent opponents have wanted to play in a similar mold: fast, furious, and with an emphasis on the three. This upcoming game, though, is a different kind of dogfight.
Southern Illinois comes in from the Missouri Valley at 4–4, but don’t let the record fool you. The Salukis were picked in the crowded MVC top tier and look more like a team still figuring out how all the new pieces fit together than a true middle-of-the-pack group.
There’s recent history, too. High Point went to Carbondale last season and won 94–81 in a track meet. Chase Johnston is the only Panther who played real minutes in that one, while SIU brings back rotation guys Damien Mayo Jr., Davion Sykes, and Drew Steffe who all saw the floor. Different rosters, different venue, same staffs, and two highly regarded mid-major programs.
🔍 Overview: What Southern Illinois Wants to Be
This is Year 2 of the Scott Nagy era in Carbondale. Year 1 was a scramble: a brand-new staff, an almost entirely new roster, and an early ACL tear to their point guard. Year 2 looks more like classic Nagy.
Continuity:
Six returners, including starters Drew Steffe and Damien Mayo, plus key role guys Sykes, Rolyns Aligbe, and Jorge Moreno.Portal Firepower:
Lead guards Quel’Ron House (Jacksonville State) and Caden Hawkins (JUCO national champ), scorer Isaiah Stafford(Valpo), Seton Hall transfer Prince Aligbe, and 7-footer Max Pikaar.Early profile (through 8 games):
- AdjO: ~108
- AdjD: ~107
- Tempo: ~70 (moderately fast)
- eFG%: 52.1%
- TO%: 16.2%
- OR%: 32.6%
- FTR: 37.4 (they live at the line)
- 3P%: ~24–25% (very poor)
- 2P%: 58.0% (excellent)
Translation:
They want to pound the paint, draw fouls, and let their length/athleticism protect the rim while still playing with enough tempo to leverage their depth. But their three-point shooting and turnover issues have been major factors in their losses.High Point’s profile is basically the mirror image:
- AdjO: ~115.7 (top-60)
- AdjD: ~106.5
- eFG%: 58.2%
- TO%: 12.8% (elite ball security)
- 3P%: 35.9%
- 2P%: 61.1%
- 3PA/FGA: ~40%
- Def TO%: 23.0%
- Def OR% / FTR allowed: shaky
So you’re looking at a hyper-efficient, spacing-heavy offense (HPU) vs. a physical, rim-attacking, foul-drawing MVC group (SIU).
⚙️ Team Identity: Saluki Ball
A Saluki is an ancient Egyptian sighthound, beloved by pharaohs, often mummified and buried with their owners. So with that in mind…1️⃣ Lock & Key
The ancient Egyptians invented the lock and key—fitting, since that’s where the Salukis do most of their work.
Southern:
- Takes a below-average rate of 3s and makes under 25%.
- Shoots 58% on 2s and lives at the rim (drives, post-ups, duck-ins).
- Draws a ton of fouls and gets to the line nearly 15 times per game.
Nagy’s best SDSU/Wright State teams were elite shooting outfits, but this group is built around straight-line drives and post touches instead of spacing.
2️⃣ Mummy Wrap Defense
Defensively, they’re closer to the classic Nagy template:
- Solid eFG% defense; they contest and wall off the rim.
- Excellent block rate—length everywhere (Sykes, both Aligbes, Moreno, Pikaar).
- Low forced turnover rate, but they make you score over size, not through clean paint touches.
They’d prefer this game in the high 60s/low 70s, physical, foul-heavy, and decided in the lane.
3️⃣ Walk/Run Like an Egyptian
Given the mascot, you’d expect a track meet. In reality:
- They play just fast enough to use their depth without being reckless.
- At their best when House/Hawkins push off a miss and create early rim pressure or kick-outs.
If this becomes a true sprint, it favors High Point’s depth and spacing. But SIU will happily run off your mistakes.
🧩 Key Salukis to Know
⭐ #2 Quel’Ron House (6’0 So, G)
Lead guard and tone-setter.
Efficient at 2s, quick downhill driver, solid playmaker, primary POA defender.
HPU Key: Wall off transition; force him into floaters and pull-ups instead of layups/lobs.⭐ #9 Isaiah Stafford (6’2 R-Sr, G)
The bucket-getter.
Former 17 ppg scorer at Valpo; high-usage, tough-shot maker.
HPU Key: Make him a volume guy, not an efficient one. Run him off rhythm and into traffic.⭐ #21 Drew Steffe (6’5 So, G/F)
Resident sniper and connector.
One of their best shooters; already has a 20+ outing this season.
HPU Key: No clean corner threes—he punishes over-help.⭐ #4 Davion Sykes (6’6 Sr, F) & #8 Prince Aligbe (6’7 Sr, F)
Switch-everything bully-ball duo.
Sykes: ultra-versatile, high 2P%, excellent defender.
Prince: mismatch 4 who can post or attack closeouts.
HPU Key: Fletcher + Anderson must win the physicality battle without fouling.🧱 The Bigs: Rolyns Aligbe, Jorge Moreno, Max Pikaar
- Rolyns: Wide, physical rebounder; raw finisher.
- Moreno: 6’11, 270; ultra-efficient post finisher, but vulnerable in space.
- Pikaar: 7-footer who wants to play on the perimeter; mobile stretch big.
HPU Key: Gang rebounding, limit second chance points and SIU will have a very difficult time keeping up
📊 Tempo-Free Snapshot
Southern Illinois (4–4):
Good at the rim, bad from three, draws fouls, solid rim protection, average turnovers forced.High Point (7–1):
Excellent shooting, elite ball security, efficient scoring everywhere, turnover-happy defense, but shaky defensive rebounding and foul rate.Edges:
- HPU ball security → big edge Panthers
- HPU shooting volume/accuracy → math edge Panthers
- SIU rim pressure/FT rate → upset path
🧠 Coaching Notes: Nagy vs. Clayman
Scott Nagy’s résumé is real: nearly 600 wins, multiple NCAA trips, and a long history of elite offensive efficiency. This SIU team isn’t there yet—especially from deep—but Nagy teams usually surge late once guard roles settle.
He’s big on continuity and said this past summer was the first time both staff and players fully understood his system. That’s why SIU is more dangerous than their record.
Clayman has High Point playing exactly how analytics dream: pace, spacing, and relentless pressure, anchored by Fletcher, Martin, and Martinez.
🏀 Matchup Outlook vs HPU
1️⃣ Turnover Tug-of-War
HPU is one of the lowest-turnover teams in the nation; SIU isn’t built to force giveaways. If High Point stays in the 8–10 turnover range, SIU loses a primary scoring engine.2️⃣ Math Problem: 3s vs. 2s
Ancient Egyptians may have invented algebra, but the math here is simple:
HPU takes and makes a lot of threes.
SIU takes and makes very few.
If HPU hits ~35–36% on high volume, SIU has to:- suddenly become a good shooting team, or
- live at the line and the offensive glass.
3️⃣ Foul Trouble & Free Throws
SIU’s FT rate is excellent; HPU’s defense can be whistle-prone. If SIU lives at the stripe and Fletcher/Aquino sit early, you’re in a grinder.4️⃣ Rebounding: Who Owns the Paint?
HPU must keep the Salukis to one shot. Limit the tip-outs and put-backs, and SIU’s offense becomes very mortal.5️⃣ Dogs vs. Cats
Salukis are literally one of the fastest dog breeds on earth but HPU is actually the team that would prefer to turn this into a track meet. The Salukis will want to turn this into a dog fight but expect the Panthers to play with their typical poise and grace behind Martin and Martinez.
🗝️ Keys for HPU
- Wall off the paint vs House/Stafford/Prince
- Contest vertically; avoid bailing them out at the line
- Gang rebound (guards included)
- Hunt bigs in space via ball screens
- Win the 3-point math
- Stay poised and keep turnovers low
🔮 Toothsayer’s Take
Southern Illinois is not last year’s hastily assembled group. They have real size, multiple capable guards, and a coach who has spent decades winning grinder-type games. But the matchup leans purple in too many crucial areas:
- High Point’s ball security, shooting, and depth
- SIU’s three-point woes and reliance on whistle + glass
- Qubein Center’s home-court energy
If the Panthers keep the Saluki offense out of the paint and avoid foul trouble, the efficiency gap should show.
Cats were sacred in Ancient Egypt for their ability to protect homes and granaries from rodents and snakes. Bastet, the cat goddess of protection, would approve: the Panthers protect their house and stay perfect at home.
Prediction:
High Point 91, Southern Illinois 74
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🐾 Panther’s Toothsayer: Western Carolina Catamounts
Sat, Nov 29 • Qubein Center • High Point, NC
📍 Series & Setting
High Point returns home at 6–1, fresh off a Boardwalk Battle championship where the Panthers were tested by a couple quality mid-majors but took home the title by playing some of their cleanest, most balanced basketball of the season. Awaiting them is an opponent with a familiar face on the sideline but rocking a completely different colored tie: Tim Craft’s Western Carolina Catamounts (3–3).After taking a year off, High Point squares off again against one of their most common foes, but this is the first meeting between the programs with Craft at the helm in Cullowhee. This will be the 61st meeting between the two purple big-cat North Carolina schools. The Panthers hold a 40–20 record over the Catamounts dating all the way back to 1946.
There is also plenty of shared history with Coach Tim Craft. Craft spent 11 seasons at Gardner-Webb, building the Runnin’ Bulldogs into a Big South force. Under Craft, Gardner-Webb made the NCAA Tournament for the first time in program history and also developed a reputation for upsetting high-major programs. In his 11 seasons, Craft recorded six wins over Power Five teams. While he went just 10–12 against High Point, his teams consistently elevated their play in games where they were roster underdogs and Saturday will be another of those situations, with HPU likely to be heavily favored at home.
However, this WCU team isn’t last season’s 8–22 rebuild project. The Catamounts entered 2025–26 returning the second-most production in the SoCon, and they have already shown real improvement, particularly behind preseason All-SoCon forward Marcus Kell and a revamped, more experienced backcourt.
Still, they arrive in High Point with plenty of flaws the Panthers can exploit.
🔍 Overview: What Western Carolina Wants to Be
Western Carolina is very much a “Year 2 jump” project.Last year
– 8–22 (4–14 SoCon)
– One of the youngest and least experienced teams in all of Division I
– Brutal offense: sub-100 AdjO, sub-30% from threeThis year
– Most of that youth is back
– Added multiple veteran guards and bigs
– Still clunky, but notably more dangerousEarly profile (through six games)
- AdjO: ~101
- AdjD: ~111
- Tempo: ~72
- eFG%: 45.3% (still poor)
- TO%: 21.7% (lots of giveaways)
- OR%: 30.0% (crash the glass hard)
- 3P: 27.3%
- 2P: 48.4%
- FT: 67.5%
Translation: they play hard, rebound aggressively, defend in stretches, but shooting and turnovers can absolutely sink them.
Meanwhile, High Point is tracking like a true mid-major problem:
- AdjO: 115.3 (top-60)
- AdjD: 106.1
- eFG%: 56.7%
- 2P: 60.7%
- 3P: 33.8%
- OR%: 31.2%
- TO%: 11.8%
- Deep, flexible rotation
- Fletcher/Martin/Martinez all playing like all-league contributors
This is elite, modern, efficient offense versus a still-growing defense-first rebuild.
⚙️ Team Identity: Creators, Crashers, and Craftball
🎯 Creators
WCU leans heavily on:- #0 Cord Stansberry (G, 11.2 PPG) — streaky but dangerous shooter; 91% FT
- #33 Marcus Kell (F, 11.7 PPG last season) — preseason All-SoCon; versatile stretch forward
- #3 Julien Soumaoro (G) — veteran Craft disciple; stabilizer and secondary creator
They determine WCU’s scoring ceiling.
🧱 Crashers
Western Carolina’s frontcourt relentlessly attacks the glass:- Abdulai Fanta Kabba — elite shot-block timing, physical rebounder
- Vernon Collins — high motor, offensive board machine
- Chase McKey — efficient finisher and connective big
They form one of the best offensive-rebounding units HPU has faced this month. If there has been any consistent weakness for High Point this season it’s been the inability to complete stops and keeping opposing offenses to one-and-dones. This will be the Panthers’ biggest challenge on Saturday.
🧩 Craftball Defense
Craft’s calling cards:- Physicality
- Clean rotations
- Walling off the paint
- Strong interior contests
Expect WCU to shrink the floor, protect the rim, and force HPU to make jumpers, something the roster can obviously do but at times have been streaky so far this year.
🧩 Key Catamounts to Know
⭐ #33 Marcus Kell — Preseason All-SoCon
- 11.7 PPG, 5.5 RPG last year
- 37.9% from three (44 makes)
- Team leader in blocks, elite stretch-4 profile
- Dangerous pick-and-pop threat
- Defensive target for HPU’s physicality
⭐ #0 Cord Stansberry — Streaky Sniper
- 11.2 PPG
- 52 threes last year
- 91.3% FT
- Career-high six threes vs VMI
- If he’s hot, WCU hangs around. If not, they struggle.
⭐ #3 Julien Soumaoro — Craft’s Guy
- Played three years under Craft at Gardner-Webb
- Strong shooter, decision-maker, competitor
- Huge upgrade over last year’s backcourt turnover issues
Others
- #22 Tidjiane Dioumassi (6’4 Gr G — Southern): elite passer, POA defender, non-shooter
- #7 Abdulai Fanta Kabba (7’0 So C): rim protector, rebounder, lob threat
- #33 Vernon Collins & #12 Samuel Dada: size + energy
- #2 CJ Hyland, #20 Fischer Brown, #8 Tahlan Pettway: youth, shooting attempts, defensive effort
📈 Tempo-Free Snapshot
Western Carolina (3–3)
- AdjO: ~106
- AdjD: ~110
- eFG%: 48.4%
- 3P%: 27.6%
- Turnovers: High
- Offensive Rebounding: Strong
- FT Shooting: A strength
High Point (6–1)
- AdjO: 115+
- AdjD: ~106
- eFG%: 56.7%
- 2P%: 60.7%
- Tempo: Top 80
- Turnover Rate: Top 25
- Depth: Legit advantage
The Panthers are operating at a higher tier and the analytics reflect it.
🧠 Coaching Notes: Tim Craft
- Record vs HPU: 10–12
- Thrives in structure, scouting, and half-court execution
- Historically struggles vs pace, turnovers, and high-efficiency offenses
- This WCU roster fits his defensive vision but has familiar offensive limitations
HPU’s pace, depth, and rim pressure are exactly the profile that traditionally gives Craft problems.
🏀 Matchup Outlook vs HPU
⏩ Pace Advantage: High Point
WCU wants a mid-possession, slower game.
HPU wants to run, rotate, and overwhelm.
Expect HPU to dictate the tempo early.🧱 Interior Battle
WCU rebounds well, but the Panthers:- Have two elite rim finishers (Fletcher & Anderson)
- Can rotate bigs to stay fresh
- Stretch WCU’s centers into space
WCU’s offensive rebounding may keep them in range, but won’t swing the game unless HPU completely loses discipline.
🎯 HPU’s Shooting vs WCU’s Coverage
WCU protects the paint, but gives up open threes — a massive risk against a team with 7–8 shooters who can get hot.🧨 The Breaking Point
WCU lacks the shot creation to survive extended droughts.
HPU’s depth routinely breaks opponents in the 2nd half.
🗝️ Keys for HPU
- Control Kell on the perimeter
- Rebound collectively
- Pressure WCU’s guards
- Run on makes and misses
- Use lineup flexibility to pull WCU’s bigs away from the rim
🔮 Toothsayer’s Take
Western Carolina has improved pieces, a real star in Kell, and a coach who knows High Point as well as anyone outside the Big South. But the matchup leans heavily toward HPU in nearly every key area:- Pace
- Depth
- Shot creation
- Rim finishing
- Turnovers caused and avoided
- Overall athleticism
WCU’s best hope is to slow the game down, rebound like madmen, and hope Kell and Stansberry go nuclear from deep. But at home, with HPU’s depth and efficiency trending upward, the Panthers should be too much.
Prediction:
High Point 92, Western Carolina 78
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🐾 Panther’s Toothsayer: Incarnate Word Cardinals
Sat, Nov 22 • Boardwalk Battle — Daytona Beach, FL
📍 Series & Setting
Another first-time matchup for High Point, this time against Incarnate Word (3–2) out of the Southland — and with a championship on the line. The Panthers enter the Boardwalk Battle finale at 5–1 with a chance to stabilize their non-conference momentum after a scrappy but successful win over UIC. They can also add to the trophy case with their first MTE bracket championship since the SoCal Challenge in 2022.
For UIW, this is a major early-season test and a potential turning point. The Cardinals picked up their first D1 victory of the season earlier in Daytona with a tight win over Southern Indiana. Their schedule has been feast-or-famine: they’ve taken care of business against lower-division opponents, been blown out by Colorado State, and then nearly shocked Indiana in Bloomington — falling 69–61 in a game they legitimately controlled for long stretches.
After facing either top-50 teams or sub-300 opponents, UIW now meets High Point — a team squarely in the “Goldilocks zone.” Sitting in the mid-80s on KenPom and coming off back-to-back conference titles, HPU is exactly the type of opponent third-year head coach Shane Heirman wants his Cardinals measured against.
And speaking of Heirman… The Incarnate Word head coach previously worked directly under Alan Huss at La Lumiere, eventually replacing him and winning a national championship in 2017. That means the Boardwalk Battle final isn’t just a showdown between two rising mid-majors — it’s a grudge match between two Huss Bus disciples.
🔍 Overview
Incarnate Word is built around two high-usage perimeter creators supported by rugged, high-motor role players. They play at a top-60 tempo and lean heavily into ball screens, dribble attacks, and the shot creation of:
- #2 Tahj Staveskie (Sr., 6’1″) — massive usage (26.8%), elite ORtg (127.0), efficient inside & out
- #5 Davion Bailey (Gr., 6’4″) — Top-5 nationally in 3PA and 3PM last season; he has the green light as soon as he enters the gym
Despite having two studs, UIW’s efficiency swings wide. Their losses typically come when turnovers spike (they rank around 220th in ball security) and when spacing evaporates. Their defense currently rates better than their offense (~115 vs. mid-160s), but that could flip — Heirman’s teams historically score at a high level while protecting absolutely nothing.
High Point, meanwhile, has found multiple ways to win despite shooting volatility. They are:
- Top-70 nationally in tempo
- Top-65 in eFG%
- Elite finishing inside the arc (59.7% from 2)
- Still searching for consistent deep shooting (34.6% from 3)
The Panthers have yet to fully click — which makes their 5–1 start even more encouraging.
⚙️ Team Identity: UIW — Creators, Crashers & Chaos
🎯 Creators
Staveskie and Bailey combine for nearly half of UIW’s total shot attempts. Everything revolves around their ball-screens, pull-ups, and rim pressure.
🧱 Crashers
UIW crashes the offensive glass hard (23.4% OR%). Marcus Glover, Jayden Williams, and Jordan Pyke give them size, length, and activity.
🔥 Chaos
They mix coverages (drop, hedge, and some zone) and force turnovers at a solid rate (18.5%).
They also foul — constantly. Their defensive FTR allowed ranks 309th nationally.
🧩 Key Cardinals
#2 Tahj Staveskie (G, Sr., 6’1″)
UIW’s offensive engine — huge usage, efficient scoring, and strong paint touches.
- 26.8% usage
- 59.8% TS
- Best guard at getting two feet in the paint
#5 Davion Bailey (G, Gr., 6’4″) — Nationally Elite Volume Shooter
Last season Bailey ranked Top 5 nationally in both 3-point attempts and 3-point makes. He’s again one of the highest-volume snipers in Division I.
- Shoots off the catch, movement, and pull-ups
- Must be tracked in transition
- Gravity is real even when the percentage dips
#7 Jordan Pyke (F, Jr., 6’7″)
- Physical interior defender
- 7.6% block rate
- Active rebounder and finisher
#10 Harold Woods (F, Sr., 6’5″)
- Glue guy, cutter, and paint finisher
- Reliable defensive presence
#8 Marcus Glover / #4 Jayden Williams
- High-motor bigs
- Generate second-chance points
- Limited floor-spacing or shot creation
📊 Tempo-Free Snapshot (Season to Date)
High Point Panthers (5–1)
AdjO: 116.5
AdjD: 106.0
eFG%: 56.5%
3P%: 34.6%
2P%: 59.7%
FT%: 74.0%
Tempo: 72.4 (Top 70)Strengths
- Balanced scoring (Martin, Fletcher, Martinez, Anderson)
- Elite rim finishing
- Turnover-resistant offense (11.7% TO%)
- Flexible, effective lineups
- Dangerous in transition
Questions
- Streaky perimeter shooting (44–127 from three)
- Rebounding consistency
- Late-clock execution vs. switching schemes
Incarnate Word Cardinals (3–2)
AdjO: 109.5
AdjD: 111.9
eFG%: 48.9%
3P%: 31.6%
2P%: 49.6%
FT%: 64.4%
Tempo: 69.2 (Top 150)Strengths
- Two legitimate 15–17 PPG creators
- Hard drivers and physical finishers
- Interior deterrence from Pyke/Glover
- Bench length and size
Weaknesses
- Among the worst FT-shooting teams nationally
- Turnovers snowball quickly
- Extremely foul-prone
- Multiple bottom-30 defensive rebounding performances
🧠 Coaching Notes: Shane Heirman (UIW)
- Former Alan Huss protégé (La Lumiere)
- Won a national HS championship
- Year 2 at UIW, coming off a historic 19–17 (CBI semifinal)
- Offense: modern, spacing-based, creator-dependent
- Defense: aggressive, physical, risky
Expect:
- Heavy Staveskie/Bailey ball screens
- Driving lanes for secondary lineups
- Occasional 1–3–1 or high-wall man
- Attempts to pull HPU’s bigs into space
🏀 Matchup Outlook vs. High Point
⏩ Pace Battle
Both teams want to run — HPU due to depth, UIW to mask half-court inconsistency.
Over time, HPU’s decision-making should dictate tempo.🧱 HPU Interior Advantage
Fletcher, Anderson, and Aquino provide superior rim protection, size, and offensive versatility.
🎯 HPU Perimeter vs. UIW Defense
UIW fouls on drives and hand-checks excessively.
HPU should live at the line — 12+ FTAs for Fletcher/Martin/Martinez is realistic.🪫 UIW Offensive Reliance
Limit Staveskie + Bailey to contested pull-ups, and UIW becomes far easier to guard.
🏎️ Daytona Nudge
HPU functions like a team with multiple engines; UIW is essentially a two-cylinder machine.
In a race that extends into the late laps, depth wins in Daytona.
🗝️ Keys for HPU
- Control Staveskie’s rhythm — mix coverages, no clean pull-ups
- Attack the paint early — UIW fouls constantly; get into the bonus by the under-12
- Punish turnovers with pace — live-ball TOs → layups + rhythm threes
- Dominate the glass — UIW’s greatest strength vs HPU’s biggest weakness
- Let the depth cook — the 24–40 minute stretch favors HPU in every game so far
🔮 Toothsayer’s Take
UIW has two true scorers and enough length to make this competitive in stretches, but their reliance on tough shot-making, turnover issues, and foul tendencies are tough matchups against High Point’s tempo, depth, and physicality. Their offensive-rebounding strength directly targets HPU’s biggest weakness, and that alone could keep the Cardinals within striking distance.
Still, High Point’s depth, versatility, and ability to pressure ball-handlers should carry the day. If the Panthers convert at the free-throw line and survive on the glass, they separate late.
Prediction:
High Point 89, Incarnate Word 83
The Panthers take control in the second half and ride steady momentum to a Boardwalk Battle title.
Cam Fletcher — Tournament MVP.
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